Indian refiners boost Nigerian crude imports as Dangote Refinery turns to U.S. oil

In a notable shift in the global oil trade, Indian refiners are increasing their purchases of Nigerian crude, while Nigeria’s flagship Dangote Petroleum Refinery sources more oil from the United States to sustain production.

According to industry sources and trade data, state-run companies such as Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) have secured millions of barrels of Nigerian crude for delivery between September and October.

This surge in demand follows pressure from Washington on New Delhi to reduce its reliance on Russian oil, prompting India to diversify its energy imports.

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According to Reuters, IOC recently bought one million barrels of Nigeria’s Agbami crude for September delivery through global trader Trafigura. BPCL also secured barrels of Nigerian grades through private negotiations.

In total, over two million barrels of Nigerian oil are headed to India in the coming months, alongside imports from Angola, Abu Dhabi, and the US.

The surge in Indian demand contrasts sharply with developments in Lagos, where the $20 billion Dangote Refinery is sourcing the majority of its crude from across the Atlantic.

Data from commodities analytics firm Kpler show that in July, US barrels accounted for about 60% of the refinery’s 590,000 barrels per day (bpd) intake the highest monthly import volume on record with Nigerian grades making up the remaining 40%.

It marks the first time since operations began that US crude has overtaken Nigerian supply at Dangote’s plant.

Analysts attribute this shift to competitive US pricing, sluggish Asian demand for American barrels, and logistical challenges in securing domestic crude under Nigeria’s Domestic Crude Supply Obligations.

“While Dangote has consistently stated it will prioritise Nigerian crude, the numbers tell a different story,” Kpler noted. “Commercial incentives, rather than geographic loyalty, appear to be guiding sourcing strategy.”

The refinery’s reliance on US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is also linked to ongoing operational adjustments. In early July, Dangote began importing condensate naphtha about 22,000 tonnes per month to support gasoline production as it worked through technical issues at its Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracking (RFCC) unit.

Despite these challenges, Dangote has positioned itself as a game-changer for Nigeria’s fuel market. In July, Aliko Dangote announced that the refinery had already made Nigeria a net exporter of refined products, shipping about one million tonnes of petrol in 50 days to destinations including Oman, Ivory Coast, and West Africa.

Energy experts say the contrasting trade flows between India and Dangote underscore the complexity and at times, irony of global oil logistics. While Nigeria exports premium grades like Bonny Light and Escravos to Asia, its own largest refinery is relying on American supply to meet its throughput needs.

Upstream, Nigeria’s crude and condensate supply has held steady at 1.75 million bpd in July, buoyed by increased onshore output and fewer pipeline disruptions.

Local producers, including Seplat and Conoil, are expanding drilling campaigns, while new infrastructure like the Otakikpo terminal is enabling more diversified exports.

For now, Dangote’s crude slate remains a mix of Nigerian and US grades, but industry watchers expect the split to be dictated more by economics than national sentiment.

“In a liberalised market, even a refinery in the shadow of the Niger Delta might find it cheaper to buy oil from Texas than from its own backyard,” one industry analyst observed.

(Punch)