Fuel prices set to hit N1,000/litre as Iran-Israel tensions rock oil market

Global crude oil prices are inching dangerously close to the $80 per barrel mark this week, driven by renewed geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran.

The oil market reacted sharply to reports of coordinated US-Israeli airstrikes on critical Iranian nuclear facilities, triggering fears of broader instability in the Middle East.

This development follows a “preemptive defensive strike,” overnight attacks launched by the United States on three of Iran’s major nuclear sites.

The strike, as announced by President Donald Trump, “obliterated” Tehran’s critical nuclear infrastructure, joining an Israeli assault in an escalation of conflict in the Middle East as Tehran vowed to defend itself. Iran is OPEC’s third-largest crude producer.

READ ALSO: Dangote’s fuel prices still high despite global crude slump — S&P Global

In a swift retaliation, the Iranian parliament has reportedly moved to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint that handles nearly a fifth of the world’s oil supply. The move sent immediate shockwaves through the global energy market, with Brent crude trading higher in the early hours and analysts projecting further gains.

Concerned by this trend, energy analysts on Sunday warned that the surge in global crude oil prices could push the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) in Nigeria to as high as N1,000 per litre in the coming weeks, should Brent crude hit the $80 per barrel threshold.

The Chief Executive Officer of PetroleumPrice.ng, Olatide Jeremiah, said private depots are already gearing up to effect a hike in loading cost on Monday.

He stated, “Private depots are likely to increase petrol price to N1,000 in the coming days with the current trend observed in the market. If by tomorrow morning, crude price increases to $80 or exceeds that threshold, Nigerians would pay N1,000 at depots.

“The situation means they will take advantage of Nigerians, but we can only hope that Dangote maintains its current price, that is the only way depot owners won’t jack up the price anyhow. The price surge seen last week was basically because Dangote stopped selling for some days. But it has opened up its portal and is now selling at N880 for two million litres. Dangote remains a major determinant of petrol price.”

According to the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, the heightened crisis between Israel and Iran has continued to push up crude prices, prompting a rise in global petrol prices.

On Friday, the Dangote refinery jerked up petrol prices from N825 to N880. In response, MRS Oil Nigeria and other filling stations selling Dangote petrol raised their pump prices to an average of N955 in the South East and North West.

One of our correspondents observed on Sunday that other filling stations have also hiked their prices to between N930 and N960, depending on the location. Lagos has the cheapest rate as MRS and other Dangote partners sold petrol at N925 per litre on Sunday.

Speaking with The PUNCH on Sunday, the National Publicity Secretary of IPMAN, Chinedu Ukadike, linked the recent price hike to instability in the global crude market due to the Israel-Iran crisis and an unstable foreign exchange situation.

“There is a crisis between Israel and Iran, and Brent crude has gone up from around $66 to about $77 per barrel,” Ukadike said. He explained that the price of crude in the international market directly impacts the cost of domestic petrol, adding that the volatility in the exchange rate also compounds the challenge.

According to him, the Dangote refinery and importers reacted to the changes to raise petrol prices on Friday. “Once the exchange rate goes up, it will affect the price of petroleum products. Once crude oil is also going up, it will also affect it,” he said.

Ukadike warned that the cost of lifting 50,000 litres of petrol is now significantly higher, putting financial pressure on independent marketers and forcing them to review their pricing strategy.

He added, “Definitely, marketers will also increase to meet that gap. Since the refiner, which is Dangote, has already increased that price. Some of them that are importers have also increased prices in line with the international market. So, for us, consequently, it will increase the volume of money we use to buy 50,000 litres worth of petrol. It will put pressure on our finances and also make us redirect and review our market strategy.”

He added that petrol could sell for as high as N1,000 per litre, especially in some parts of the North, due to transportation and logistics costs. “In the North, we’ve seen N980, N990, N975. Some places, maybe to the far end, around N1,000,” he said.

According to him, the combination of international market forces and domestic cost burdens is making it difficult for marketers to maintain stable pricing. He said that petrol refined locally by Dangote could be sold at almost the same price as imported products, largely due to global crude price volatility.

Ukadike explained that the Dangote refinery is also sourcing crude oil at international market rates, which he said diminishes the expected price advantage over imports.

“Dangote is buying crude oil, and the price of crude oil has gone up. So definitely, it depends on what the presidential committee on the naira-for-crude deal approves,” he added. Ukadike noted that marketers would likely retail petrol between N930 and N990 per litre, depending on the region.

He explained that some areas, particularly the South-South, are seeing prices of up to N950 per litre due to depot proximity and marine delivery from coastal terminals. “Some of them in the South-South are using the coastal area to take their products. So those ones are selling from their depots because they collected products from vessels,” he said.

Ukadike reiterated that the cost of petrol remains heavily influenced by the interplay of crude prices, foreign exchange rates, and logistics.

The PUNCH reports that importers had earlier increased their prices following the rise in crude prices.

Our correspondent reports that Nigeria’s major crude grades—Bonny Light, Brass River, and Qua Iboe—rose to $79 per barrel last week and sustained the rise till yesterday, following Israel’s military strikes on Iran, heightening fears of a wider Middle East conflict.

According to data from Oilprice.com as of Sunday, Bonny Light stood at $78.62 per barrel, while Brass River and Qua Iboe closed at approximately $79. From around N65 in the past weeks, Brent stood at $77, and WTI rose to $73.84 per barrel.

The new price levels exceed the Federal Government’s 2025 budget benchmark of $75 per barrel by about $3, potentially offering short-term fiscal relief. The new price levels exceed the Federal Government’s 2025 budget benchmark of $75 per barrel by about $3, potentially offering short-term fiscal relief.

Analysts had earlier warned that higher crude prices could trigger an increase in local fuel prices, as refiners face rising costs for crude, the primary feedstock for petrol and diesel production. Since Monday, depots have hiked the pump prices of petrol after the escalating tension in the Middle East jerked up the prices of crude oil.

Petrol price rose from N825 to N840 on Monday. Rainoil’s price surged by N50, from N850 to N900 per litre. It was also reported that Fynefield and Mainland jerked their ex-depot prices to N930 and N920, adding N51 and N63 respectively.

As of Monday, Sigmund was selling at N920 per litre; Matrix Warri’s price was N910; NIPCO jumped to N895 from N827 last week, while Aiteo sold petrol at the rate of N840, as shown by Petroleumprice.com. Our correspondent observed that SGR, which was selling petrol at N850 before now, adjusted its pump price to N930 per litre.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited is also expected to change its pump prices. Similarly, the head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad and a former OPEC official, Jorge Leon, in an interview with Reuters, noted that “An oil price jump is expected. Even in the absence of immediate retaliation, markets are likely to price in a higher geopolitical risk premium.”

Global oil benchmark Brent crude could gain $3 to $5 per barrel when markets open, SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye said in a note. Brent settled at $77.01 a barrel on Friday, and US West Texas Intermediate at $73.84.

Ole Hansen, analyst at Saxo Bank, said crude could open $4 to $5 higher, with potential for some long positioning being unwound. Crude had settled down on Friday after the US imposed fresh Iran-related sanctions, including on two entities based in Hong Kong, and counter-terrorism-related sanctions, according to a notice on the US Treasury Department website.

Brent has risen 11 per cent while WTI has gained around 10 per cent since the conflict began on June 13, with Israel targeting Iran’s nuclear sites and Iranian missiles hitting buildings in Tel Aviv.

Currently stable supply conditions and the availability of spare production capacity among other OPEC members have limited oil’s gains. Risk premiums have typically faded when no supply disruptions occurred, said Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS.

“The direction of oil prices from here will depend on whether there are supply disruptions, which would likely result in higher prices, or if there is a de-escalation in the conflict, resulting in a fading risk premium,” he said.

Meanwhile, Iran’s parliament has reportedly voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, considered a strategic and vital asset. The decision to close the strait is not yet final, and it was not officially reported that parliament had adopted a bill to that effect.

Instead, a member of parliament’s national security commission, Esmail Kosari, was quoted on other Iranian media as saying: “For now, [parliament has] concluded we should close the Strait of Hormuz, but the final decision in this regard is the responsibility of the Supreme National Security Council.

The Strait of Hormuz lies between Oman and Iran and links the Persian Gulf north of it with the Gulf of Oman to the south and the Arabian Sea beyond. It is 21 miles (33 km) wide at its narrowest point, with the shipping lane just 2 miles (3 km) wide in either direction. About 20 per cent of the world’s oil, estimated at 17 to 18 million barrels per day, passes through it.